I recently enjoyed the privilege of joining Kiwibank Chief Economist, Jarrod Kerr, on a discussion about the state and future of the NZ economy. Jarrod is a highly respected figure in the world of economics and finance, with a wealth of experience and expertise in macroeconomic research, financial markets and policy analysis. He understands the global economic landscape and is known for his ability to accurately forecast economic trends. As such, he has become a go-to resource and trusted advisor to numerous industry leaders and decision-makers.
Noting that Jarrod’s comments were focused on current economic trends and business challenges; noting his confidence in the ability of businesses to adapt under stress; and noting his measured but upbeat assessment of recovery, I asked him about forecasting. None of Jarrod’s analysis extended beyond the next two to three years (which seemed appropriate for his topic). So, in the context of the continuing and recurring causal factors for the current downturn (such as pandemic, geopolitical instability, extreme weather events etc), I asked Jarrod whether he had a feel for how many boards were looking beyond the immediate situation in their planning and preparedness. He thought ‘not many’. Business is swamped with the ‘here and now’ and a glance at the business confidence charts explains why. He said, ‘we have our blinkers on and the disruptors are massive’. Jarrod went on to comment on the questionable future of ‘insurability’ in NZ; on his concerns about NZ’s trade dependency on China in the context of geopolitical stability in the Pacific; and on AI as ‘a massive gamechanger for all of us – in every industry and business’.
We are reminded in these conversations that, with full respect for the immediate imperatives, the prize will surely go to leaderships with one eye on the drivers of the ‘next’ operating environment. We find ourselves in exceptional times, and there is a forecast for more. Prudence has a new (or at least refreshed) dimension – preparedness.
On behalf of the ThinkBird team, our sincere thanks to the outstanding crew at PWA for organizing and hosting yet another valuable and timely webinar. Shaun Clarke
